Example session · ES 15m

Chart Analysis

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Midday · 1:00 PM ET
ESS&P 500E-mini S&P 500 · CME
5m15m1h4hD
▼ BEARISH Instrument: ES TF: 15m Confidence: 71/100 Strong Draw: Recent swing low / EQL cluster near 6,860-6,880
Bearish. Price has been in a strong multi-day downtrend and is now rallying into resistance near 6,955. Wait for price to rally into the supply zone around 6,955-6,975 and show a clear rejection on a 5-minute chart before shorting, targeting a return toward the recent lows below 6,880.
Why this confidence · 71/100
The macro bearish trend is clean and multi-session, providing a clear draw and directional bias, which pushes confidence into the low 70s. The 15m chart shows a rally into a well-defined OB/FVG supply zone with the boundaries cleanly marked by the last displacement leg down. Confidence is held out of the 82+ band only because the London sweep and 5m MSS confirmation are still pending.
Pre-entry checklist
Then → Enter short at 6,960, stop above the OB top at 6,995, target the EQL draw at 6,875. Watch the NY AM kill zone (8:30-11:00 AM ET) for the 5m trigger. If price disrespects the 6,955-6,975 OB by closing a 15m candle cleanly above it, the setup is off and the secondary scenario takes over.
Primary setup
IF price rallies into the OB/FVG confluence zone at 6,955-6,975 AND shows a bearish MSS or ChoCH on the 5m chart, THEN enter short at 6,960, stop above the OB top at 6,995, target the EQL draw at 6,875. Watch the NY AM kill zone (8:30-11:00 AM ET) for the 5m trigger. If price disrespects the 6,955-6,975 OB by closing a 15m candle cleanly above it, the setup is off and the secondary scenario takes over.
Key levels
LevelPriceTypeNote
Recent Swing Low / EQL Draw 6,860-6,880 EQL Primary draw on liquidity, the April 17 session low where stops are clustered below. This is the target for any NY continuation leg.
Current Price / Consolidation Zone 6,915 EQ Price is consolidating just above the swing low, forming a short-term range. A sweep of this zone's high would be the Judas swing before continuation.
OB + FVG Confluence Entry Zone 6,955-6,975 OB The displacement candle base from the April 17 acceleration leg down. This is the primary OB/FVG retracement zone and the ideal entry area on a rally. Price respecting this zone confirms bearish continuation.
Mid-Range Resistance / Prior Consolidation Low 7,000-7,020 FVG Secondary resistance from the April 16 consolidation range lows. A breach of this level on a closing basis would weaken the bearish structure significantly.
April 16 Session High / BSL 7,040-7,060 BSL Buy-side liquidity resting above the April 16 consolidation highs. A sweep here would be a deeper Judas swing but would still be within the broader bearish structure if displacement follows.
Trend Origin / Prior Swing High 7,150-7,170 PDH The multi-day trend origin and hard invalidation zone. A close above here would negate the entire bearish macro structure visible on this chart.
Invalidation
A 15m candle closing above the OB top at 6,995 without a prior sweep of the 7,040 BSL would indicate institutional accumulation rather than a rally into resistance, negating the bearish continuation model. Additionally, if price reclaims the swept swing low at 6,860 and then fails to break below it on a retest, the entire draw is consumed and the setup has no remaining target.
Why this bias ▾
The chart shows a powerful multi-session bearish trend originating from the April 13-14 Asia/London sessions near 7,150, with price grinding lower through each successive session and accelerating sharply into the April 17 NY session to print a low near 6,860-6,880. The April 18-19 price action shows a rally/consolidation from that low, currently hovering near 6,915, suggesting a retracement into a potential OB/FVG supply zone before the next leg lower. London's role in the current session appears to be building a minor consolidation range, with the expected NY continuation being a rejection at the 6,955 swing area and a push toward the 6,880 area where the next visible liquidity pool resides.
Session & context ▾
Current phase: April 19 pre-market / early London session. Price is in a post-NY-accumulation relief rally after the sharp April 17 decline. The Judas swing for today's London session has not been confirmed; price is consolidating near 6,915 and could sweep either the local high (~6,955) or local low (~6,880) to set up the NY continuation. Primary kill zone to watch: NY AM open 8:30-11:00 AM ET. No prior London sweep is confirmed on this chart yet, do not enter before displacement is visible.
Phase
Post-NY-accumulation relief rally, London consolidation phase, no Judas swing confirmed yet
Structure
Partial confluence: strong macro trend + visible draw, awaiting sweep + displacement + OB/FVG retest
Next event
Wait for London to sweep local high or low, then confirm 15m displacement before watching for 5m MSS/ChoCH inside OB/FVG at NY open (8:30 AM ET)
Secondary scenario
If price instead sweeps the current consolidation low near 6,860-6,880 first (a London / pre-market Judas swing to the downside) and then displaces back above 6,915 with a strong bullish candle, the draw flips to the upside, targeting the OB/FVG zone at 7,000-7,020 and potentially the BSL at 7,040. In that scenario, wait for a bullish MSS on the 5m inside the 6,900-6,920 zone before entering long.
Reference, terms used in this analysis
OBOrder Block, last opposing candle before an institutional impulse; price returns here for repricing.
FVGFair Value Gap, three-candle imbalance showing aggressive institutional order flow.
BSLBuy-Side Liquidity, stop losses resting above equal highs or swing highs.
SSLSell-Side Liquidity, stop losses resting below equal lows or swing lows.
EQLEqual Lows, two or more matching lows; a visible liquidity pool below price.
ChoCHChange of Character, structure break against the prevailing trend; signals possible reversal.
MSSMarket Structure Shift, a lower-timeframe break of structure used to time entry after a liquidity sweep.
PDHPrevious Day High, prior session's high; a key liquidity level and reference point.