Example session · ES 15m

Chart Analysis

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Midday · 1:00 PM ET
ESS&P 500E-mini S&P 500 · CME
5m15m1h4hD
▲ BULLISH Instrument: ES TF: 15m Confidence: 62/100 Moderate Draw: Recent swing high / EQH cluster near 7,180-7,200
Bullish. Price has been in a strong multi-day uptrend and is now pulling back from the recent high near 7,180. Wait for price to dip into the support zone around 7,100-7,120 and show a clear bounce on a 5-minute chart before buying, targeting a return toward the recent highs above 7,180.
Why this confidence · 62/100
The macro bullish trend is clean and multi-session, providing a clear draw and directional bias, which pushes confidence into the 60s. However, the chart is a 15m view showing a current consolidation/pullback with no confirmed London sweep or displacement yet for today's session. The OB/FVG entry zone has not been tested, and the exact zone boundaries require inference rather than a clean label, holding this firmly in the 48-64 band rather than the 65-81 band.
Pre-entry checklist
Then → Enter long at 7,110, stop below the OB base at 7,075, target the EQH draw at 7,185. Watch the NY AM kill zone (8:30-11:00 AM ET) for the 5m trigger. If price disrespects the 7,100-7,120 OB by closing a 15m candle cleanly below it, the setup is off and the secondary scenario takes over.
Primary setup
IF price pulls back into the OB/FVG confluence zone at 7,100-7,120 AND shows a bullish MSS or ChoCH on the 5m chart, THEN enter long at 7,110, stop below the OB base at 7,075, target the EQH draw at 7,185. Watch the NY AM kill zone (8:30-11:00 AM ET) for the 5m trigger. If price disrespects the 7,100-7,120 OB by closing a 15m candle cleanly below it, the setup is off and the secondary scenario takes over.
Key levels
LevelPriceTypeNote
Recent Swing High / EQH Draw 7,180-7,200 EQH Primary draw on liquidity, the April 17 session high where stops are clustered above. This is the target for any NY continuation leg.
Current Price / Consolidation Zone 7,160 BSL Price is consolidating just below the swing high, forming a short-term range. A sweep of this zone's low would be the Judas swing before continuation.
OB + FVG Confluence Entry Zone 7,100-7,120 OB The displacement candle base from the April 17 acceleration leg. This is the primary OB/FVG retracement zone and the ideal entry area on a pullback. Price respecting this zone confirms bullish continuation.
Mid-Range Support / Prior Consolidation High 7,060-7,080 FVG Secondary support from the April 16 consolidation range highs. A breach of this level on a closing basis would weaken the bullish structure significantly.
April 16 Session Low / SSL 7,040-7,050 SSL Sell-side liquidity resting below the April 16 consolidation lows. A sweep here would be a deeper Judas swing but would still be within the broader bullish structure if displacement follows.
Trend Origin / Prior Swing Low 6,920-6,940 PDL The multi-day trend origin and hard invalidation zone. A close below here would negate the entire bullish macro structure visible on this chart.
Invalidation
A 15m candle closing below the OB base at 7,075 without a prior sweep of the 7,040 SSL would indicate institutional distribution rather than a retracement, negating the bullish continuation model. Additionally, if price reclaims the swept swing high at 7,200 and then fails to hold above it on a retest, the entire draw is consumed and the setup has no remaining target.
Why this bias ▾
The chart shows a powerful multi-session bullish trend originating from the April 13-14 Asia/London sessions near 6,920, with price grinding higher through each successive session and accelerating sharply into the April 17 NY session to print a high near 7,180-7,200. The April 18-19 price action shows a pullback/consolidation from that high, currently hovering near 7,160, suggesting a retracement into a potential OB/FVG confluence zone before the next leg higher. London's role in the current session appears to be building a minor consolidation range, with the expected NY continuation being a reclaim of the 7,180 swing high and a push toward the 7,200 area where the next visible liquidity pool resides.
Session & context ▾
Current phase: April 19 pre-market / early London session. Price is in a post-NY-distribution pullback after the explosive April 17 run. The Judas swing for today's London session has not been confirmed; price is consolidating near 7,160 and could sweep either the local high (~7,180) or local low (~7,120) to set up the NY continuation. Primary kill zone to watch: NY AM open 8:30-11:00 AM ET. No prior London sweep is confirmed on this chart yet, do not enter before displacement is visible.
Phase
Post-NY-distribution pullback, London consolidation phase, no Judas swing confirmed yet
Structure
Partial confluence: strong macro trend + visible draw, awaiting sweep + displacement + OB/FVG retest
Next event
Wait for London to sweep local high or low, then confirm 15m displacement before watching for 5m MSS/ChoCH inside OB/FVG at NY open (8:30 AM ET)
Secondary scenario
If price instead sweeps the current consolidation high near 7,180-7,200 first (a London / pre-market Judas swing to the upside) and then displaces back below 7,160 with a strong bearish candle, the draw flips to the downside, targeting the OB/FVG zone at 7,060-7,080 and potentially the SSL at 7,040. In that scenario, wait for a bearish MSS on the 5m inside the 7,140-7,160 zone before entering short.
Reference, terms used in this analysis
OBOrder Block, last opposing candle before an institutional impulse; price returns here for repricing.
FVGFair Value Gap, three-candle imbalance showing aggressive institutional order flow.
BSLBuy-Side Liquidity, stop losses resting above equal highs or swing highs.
SSLSell-Side Liquidity, stop losses resting below equal lows or swing lows.
EQHEqual Highs, two or more matching highs; a visible liquidity pool above price.
ChoCHChange of Character, structure break against the prevailing trend; signals possible reversal.
MSSMarket Structure Shift, a lower-timeframe break of structure used to time entry after a liquidity sweep.
PDLPrevious Day Low, prior session's low; a key liquidity level and reference point.